Is there enough biomass to defossilise the chemicals and derived materials sector by 2050?

The Bio-based Industries Consortium (BIC) and Renewable Carbon Initiative (RCI)  have jointly commissioned research from the nova Institute, investigating the question of whether there is enough sustainably-sourced biomass to defossilise the chemicals and derived materials sector by 2050.

Using various modelling techniques and scenarios that provide quantitative data, the report demonstrates agricultural and woody biomass can sustainably provide enough biomass to meet at least 20% of the future carbon demand of the chemical and derived materials industries in 2050, up from 5.5% (EU27) and 10% (global) in 2023.

The report also provides industries and policymakers with the key elements to develop a strategic roadmap for harnessing biomass as a renewable carbon source, sharing actionable data and scenarios to drive the transformation.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Can agricultural and woody biomass combined sustainably provide enough biomass to meet 20% of the future carbon demand of the chemical and derived materials industries in 2050, up from 5.5% (EU27) and 10% (global) in 2023?

When it comes to setting priorities for the use of biomass, a clear statement must first be made: Before the chemical industry is supplied with biomass, the overall demand for food and feed must be met – food is a necessity and has the highest priority. In addition, the existing European and global regulatory framework1 with quotas drives demand for biofuels, although there is a need for a level playing field between fuels, chemicals and materials. As long as there are no corresponding quotas for bio-based chemicals and derived materials, they are only a lower priority.

Despite the demand of these other sectors, the principal answer is: yes, covering 20% of overall carbon demand of the chemical and derived material sector in 2050 with biomass appears to be a realistic and achievable estimate. Providing much more than 20% of the carbon demand via biomass would be unreasonable, but about 20% of the renewable carbon can be sustainably supplied by biogenic carbon to the chemical and derived material industries. Furthermore, this share can be sustainably delivered without compromising the food and feed supply and the demand for biofuels.

Agriculture: By 2050, under the BAU scenario, production is projected to increase by 31% to 5.07 billion tonnes. Cereals increase by 32% to 3.1 billion tonnes, sugar by 40% to 340 million tonnes and vegetable oils by 45% to 317 million tonnes (see Fig. 2). In the Green LRD scenarios, production is projected to increase by 24–26%, and in the Green HT scenarios by 38–53% – compared to 31% in the BAU scenario.

The projected future demand for starch, sugar and vegetable oil – still the dominant feedstocks for the chemical industry in 2050 – can be met: The additional yield required is around 10% (compared to BAU), so the moderate Green HT +10% scenario is fully sufficient to meet the demand. Stronger High Tech scenarios can even provide enough biomass to significantly exceed the 20% target, up to 40%.

Technological innovation therefore appears to play the most important role in achieving the 20% target. At the same time, the more efficient production and use of biomass in HT scenarios allows more land to be set aside and used for nature restoration. To increase the share of available biomass, more lignocellulosic feedstocks such as straw, wood and biowaste can be used. However, access to these feedstocks faces strong competition from Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF), which have large volumes and strong political support through quotas.
 
The amount of wheat, barley, rye and oat straw available for use could be greatly increased by using not only cereal straw, but also tapping into maize and rice straw. This could turn straw into an important feedstock.

However, a critical challenge is the increasing competition for biomass from other sectors, particularly sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). This competition could increase pressure on available feedstocks and make it more difficult for the chemical and derived material industries to secure second generation biomass supply. In this context technological advances such as Carbon Capture and Utilisation (CCU) could play an important role in ensuring that all sectors can meet their carbon reduction targets and reduce the pressure on highly demanded biomass resources. As the production of synthetic aviation fuels increases beyond 2030, there will be opportunities to use the co-product naphtha in crackers of the chemical industry.

Forestry: Global supply and demand of industrial roundwood (coniferous and non-coniferous) will increase by an estimated 38% between 2020 and 2050, from 0.9 to 1.3 billion tdm. The largest increase in supply is expected in Asia (69%), including China and Russia, but a significant increase of 32% is also seen for Europe. The additional demand from the chemical and materials industries is comparatively small compared to the traditional applications of wood. This means that, in principle, it is very feasible to meet this demand in a sustainable way. There are several options for meeting this demand: (1) use a relatively small proportion of total industrial roundwood supply (evaluate cost-effectiveness), (2) preferred: use of by-products from industrial roundwood processing (problem of high competition), or (3) divert a relatively small proportion from the fuelwood sector.

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